Shooting The Breeze

Welcome back

The breeze is talking again. The sea too, whispering something older than the market, more enduring than yield curves. This episode was recorded beneath Saharan skies on the island of St. Barts, during Acid Capitalist Summer Camp 2.0. But what is a camp if not a gathering of searchers. A pause in the trade winds to ask the old questions.

I was met by a journalist. Young, wide-eyed, barefoot. She carried a pencil and the memory of a mixtape. She asked me to speak of fear, folly, volatility and love. I answered not with answers but with exhalation. We spoke of exile, of turtles, of the dull ache of markets remembered and misremembered.

Just like Johnny Rotten sang, "This is Not a Love Song", in 1983, this is not an investment interview, more a moment.

The market is a hallucination. It's also a mirror. I once managed billions. Today, I manage time. There's something here, in this place, that bends the arc of memory. You come to St. Barts to heal, or to vanish. Perhaps both.

There is no grand thesis. Only a few half-remembered charts, a Rolling Stones lyric, and the suspicion that finance was never about spreadsheets but about stories.

This episode is a love letter. To serendipity. To misfits. To the exquisite loneliness of being early.

Draw close to the speaker. Tilt your face toward the trade winds. Pour something cold and forget, for a moment, the noise.

The tape begins...

Hugh Hendry

The Acid Capitalist

Transcript

(00:00:04):
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the Asset Capitalist Show, to the warm climes of St.

(00:00:13):
Bart's, where the markets, they whisper, and the sea, it confesses.

(00:00:21):
You may even hear the wind this week,

(00:00:24):
because I'm recording from the master bedroom at Blanc Bleu.

(00:00:28):
I'm sitting here, the doors are all open, and I'm surveying the endless blue sea.

(00:00:36):
I am Hugh Hendry, and this week I am wrapped in market dissonance.

(00:00:43):
I'm feeling like Roy Batty, remember?

(00:00:47):
The replicant in Blade Runner.

(00:00:51):
I've been pumping tweets out endlessly into the metaverse because,

(00:00:57):
because people,

(00:00:59):
I've seen things you wouldn't believe.

(00:01:01):
Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.

(00:01:08):
I've watched sea beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate.

(00:01:16):
Poetic, you bet.

(00:01:19):
but somehow it feels oddly prescient this week.

(00:01:24):
The attack ships?

(00:01:26):
Trade routes ablaze.

(00:01:29):
A cosmic battlefield of sovereign commerce.

(00:01:35):
A flickering economic collapse at the edge of our economic understanding.

(00:01:43):
The Tannhauser Gate?

(00:01:45):
It now stands for those

(00:01:48):
who refuse to see those swallowing the media's revulsion at the great unravelling

(00:01:55):
of unfettered trade.

(00:01:58):
They think it's chaos.

(00:02:00):
I think it's poetry.

(00:02:03):
And this week, oh this week, I'm lit up.

(00:02:06):
My synapses are firing.

(00:02:09):
I feel like I just woke up.

(00:02:12):
You know, Rip Van Winkle, 100 years style.

(00:02:15):
And the people...

(00:02:17):
The strange people in power, they're making sense.

(00:02:21):
It's like a Talking Heads album.

(00:02:25):
The U.S.

(00:02:25):
administration, the Treasury Secretary, Scott, Mr. Besson, sounds like a Nazi capitalist.

(00:02:33):
All I'm saying is, if this is a dream, people, please let me sleep longer.

(00:02:40):
But let's return to St.

(00:02:42):
Bart's.

(00:02:43):
With the air here currently in April, the air is heavy with Saharan sand.

(00:02:51):
Because we're not just at the edge of the tropics.

(00:02:55):
We're on the cusp of something stranger.

(00:02:59):
More eclectic, electric, possibly divine.

(00:03:05):
This week, I'm shooting the breeze.

(00:03:08):
August 24 style.

(00:03:12):
You heard me right.

(00:03:14):
I feel like I found a VCR,

(00:03:17):
a videocassette recording from an interview from last year's Summer Camp.

(00:03:24):
Talking of which,

(00:03:25):
drum roll,

(00:03:28):
I do hope some of you,

(00:03:30):
genuinely I do hope some of you will make it this year in August.

(00:03:34):
I'll be joined by...

(00:03:36):
The one and only David Levinson,

(00:03:38):
George Garman,

(00:03:39):
Brent Johnson,

(00:03:40):
Jeff Snyder,

(00:03:41):
Mike Green,

(00:03:42):
Darius Dale,

(00:03:44):
Tom Roderick.

(00:03:45):
Who knows, maybe even more.

(00:03:47):
I'm inviting everyone.

(00:03:49):
But, but, from a cabana.

(00:03:54):
At the Gypsy Beach Club.

(00:03:57):
Right next door to Nicky Beach.

(00:03:59):
But last year.

(00:04:01):
I want to share with you.

(00:04:03):
Now.

(00:04:04):
A tale.

(00:04:05):
A tale so serendipitous.

(00:04:10):
It feels.

(00:04:11):
Scripted.

(00:04:13):
But I promise you.

(00:04:14):
It wasn't.

(00:04:16):
I want to tell you it vibed itself.

(00:04:18):
Into existence.

(00:04:21):
Picture this.

(00:04:23):
A wide-eyed young female journalist.

(00:04:27):
A barefoot macro-heretic.

(00:04:31):
The collision only in St.

(00:04:34):
Botts.

(00:04:36):
The kid, she came armed with nothing but denim cut-offs.

(00:04:43):
A pencil and the memory of a mixtape.

(00:04:49):
She was sent from distant shores, a wannabe Rolling Stones, a journalist, a risk taker.

(00:04:59):
She wanted to bag the guy who once whispered to markets, but now lounges like Gatsby meets Yoda.

(00:05:11):
The Last Jedi stranded on a rock formation on the edge of the Dollars Empire.

(00:05:19):
Her mandate to get the asset capitalists to talk.

(00:05:24):
Imagine.

(00:05:25):
Talk about what?

(00:05:26):
About fear.

(00:05:27):
About folly.

(00:05:29):
About finding rhythm in volatility.

(00:05:33):
And maybe, maybe goddammit, talk about love.

(00:05:38):
So what unfolded?

(00:05:40):
Not an interview.

(00:05:41):
I want to say an exhalation.

(00:05:42):
Exhalation.

(00:05:45):
I, me, the innocent capitalist, I riffed on psychos, turtles, and exile on Main Street.

(00:05:54):
She scribbled notes on a napkin as I delivered a sermon on why being everyone else

(00:06:03):
is perhaps the real mediocrity.

(00:06:08):
It wasn't just her coming of age.

(00:06:11):
It was the markets, maybe even mine,

(00:06:17):
So, ladies and gentlemen, this, you know, this isn't your average podcast.

(00:06:23):
It's sunshine dripping through paradox.

(00:06:27):
It's macro philosophy from the beach.

(00:06:30):
It's barefoot and unfiltered.

(00:06:34):
And in the background,

(00:06:35):
always,

(00:06:36):
there's the sea whispering something old,

(00:06:41):
old,

(00:06:42):
something oddly prescient.

(00:06:46):
Because when you're surrounded by natural beauty like I am,

(00:06:51):
the endless sky,

(00:06:52):
these straight winds that I hope you can hear,

(00:06:57):
the unrelenting sunshine,

(00:06:59):
you know what happens?

(00:07:01):
Your brain stops solving and it starts remembering.

(00:07:08):
People call it art, attention restoration theory.

(00:07:16):
But here in this show, it's just the vibe.

(00:07:20):
The moment when speculative minds catch flickers of a distant future.

(00:07:28):
So I beseech you, pour something cold.

(00:07:32):
Pick yourself a little bit closer to the speaker.

(00:07:37):
tilt your face towards the breeze because somewhere between capital flows,

(00:07:43):
tariffs and cassette tapes,

(00:07:46):
the story begins again.

(00:07:49):
So let's do this.

(00:07:51):
And don't forget to rate the show or send me a message.

(00:07:55):
I get lonely on my little island.

(00:07:58):
And remember,

(00:07:59):
Every week now, I'm publishing Boswellian Island Journeys on my Patreon and Substack accounts.

(00:08:08):
You'll find me musing on markets as I'm musing on cocktails or walking down the

(00:08:14):
delicious beaches of St.

(00:08:15):
Bart's.

(00:08:16):
And with that, I'm going to wish you adieu.

(00:08:21):
And I'm going to invite you to kick back and listen.

(00:08:25):
to the tape from last year.

(00:08:28):
I do hope you enjoy a bisou from St Barts.

(00:08:35):
We're here for the first ever interview for Check the Breeze with the one and only Hugh Hendry.

(00:08:40):
Hugh, can you tell us a little bit about yourself?

(00:08:44):
What's to say?

(00:08:45):
I'm the asset capitalist, former global macro hedge fund manager,

(00:08:51):
living the life here in St Barks and for

(00:08:58):
I don't know why, but sometimes I get glimpses of the future.

(00:09:03):
I resonate and I vibrate and I see things.

(00:09:06):
I'm the most unlikely finance guy,

(00:09:09):
and I'm out to tell the story that finance doesn't have to be about linear lines

(00:09:14):
and wearing suits and looking at spreadsheets.

(00:09:17):
It's like a blank canvas, and we can think of it creatively.

(00:09:20):
And so I'm having a camp here in St.

(00:09:22):
Bart's, and I'm out there writing, and I'm trying to see there's a...

(00:09:27):
There's another way to make money.

(00:09:28):
You don't have to be a douchebag.

(00:09:32):
What would you do differently in your hedge fund environment before versus if you

(00:09:36):
were to restart one now?

(00:09:38):
What I'd do differently?

(00:09:42):
And with the environment specifically, like in your office or where it would be?

(00:09:46):
Oh, I wouldn't change any of that.

(00:09:49):
So the conflict of my...

(00:09:54):
I am very content and very satisfied that I achieved tenure, T-E-N-U-R-E.

(00:10:03):
I had the great distinction and the great honour of managing a speculative book of

(00:10:09):
capital of other people's money for 15 years.

(00:10:12):
It was an activity that filled my,

(00:10:14):
you know,

(00:10:15):
my jam jar was filled with pebbles of joy as opposed to sand of noise.

(00:10:20):
But the eternal conflict was fitting in,

(00:10:26):
like being a,

(00:10:26):
what is the expression,

(00:10:28):
a square peg in a round hole.

(00:10:30):
And so from time to time, I found the...

(00:10:36):
Money is conservative,

(00:10:37):
and from time to time I was compelled to be less me and more financially successful.

(00:10:44):
And I have to say,

(00:10:45):
I don't know if I ever really found a solution to that,

(00:10:48):
but I think if I was to do it again,

(00:10:52):
I'd be more resolute and confident in who I am.

(00:10:56):
About confidence, what's your strategy, what's your secret to your own confidence?

(00:11:02):
I'm a paranoid schizophrenic.

(00:11:04):
Okay.

(00:11:06):
So I quite literally,

(00:11:08):
I hear voices in my head,

(00:11:10):
which lead me to take investments to risk other people's hard-earned capital.

(00:11:18):
And when I do that, I think, oh my God, I'm crazy.

(00:11:20):
And I get really fearful.

(00:11:21):
So I'm a paranoid schizophrenic.

(00:11:24):
Now,

(00:11:24):
the voices in my head would come from looking at,

(00:11:28):
for some reason,

(00:11:29):
again,

(00:11:29):
so I said to you,

(00:11:30):
I finished my hedge fund career.

(00:11:33):
I had 15 years and it ended in 2017.

(00:11:36):
I've been here ever since.

(00:11:39):
And I don't have a Bloomberg term and I'm not tapped into the masters of the universe.

(00:11:44):
You know, I'm not like reading investment books, et cetera.

(00:11:48):
And yet somehow, somehow I see stuff.

(00:11:51):
You said that good managers know when to exit.

(00:11:55):
When did you know to exit?

(00:11:58):
I think what we were talking about was one of the best questions you can ask

(00:12:02):
speculators is when do you know you're wrong?

(00:12:06):
And you should have articulated, you should know when you're wrong.

(00:12:11):
We've been discussing this week this tragic situation

(00:12:16):
tragic story of the death of Mike Lynch,

(00:12:20):
the former chief executive of a British technology company,

(00:12:23):
Autonomy,

(00:12:25):
which was acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 2012.

(00:12:29):
And then Mike was subject to

(00:12:32):
a very, very long-running legal dispute with US justice.

(00:12:37):
The claim from Hewlett-Packard was that he had fraudulently misrepresented the

(00:12:45):
revenues of the business.

(00:12:46):
He won that case almost against the odds.

(00:12:52):
And he found himself free.

(00:12:54):
And six weeks later, he's on his super yacht off the coast of Sicily.

(00:13:00):
and it sinks he has a party to uh to thank everyone who stood by him yeah and six

(00:13:06):
of his close and as tragically as his young daughter they die um and you know we

(00:13:14):
were just reading uh there was a quote from the chief executive of the boat company

(00:13:19):
who manufactured the boat and he said this boat is unsinkable right so and it's

(00:13:24):
like honey

(00:13:25):
Your boat is 55 metres below the sea level on the seabed,

(00:13:29):
and you're telling me it's unsinkable,

(00:13:31):
right?

(00:13:32):
So I don't think he's articulating when he knows it's wrong.

(00:13:35):
Do you know what I mean?

(00:13:36):
And that's a kind of metaphor that I see constantly repeated.

(00:13:40):
It's an emotional energy discharge where people buy things because I call it the

(00:13:46):
conceit and arrogance of well-formed arguments.

(00:13:48):
They kind of logically construct...

(00:13:53):
narratives of the future.

(00:13:54):
And then,

(00:13:55):
and they're like,

(00:13:55):
wow,

(00:13:56):
I'm going to make lots of money,

(00:13:57):
but they're buying things that are going down.

(00:13:58):
So they're on a sinking boat.

(00:14:01):
Uh,

(00:14:01):
it's this whole notion of exit or knowing when you're wrong is like when your feet,

(00:14:05):
your ankles,

(00:14:06):
when your knee,

(00:14:06):
when your waist gets wet,

(00:14:08):
start like,

(00:14:09):
you know,

(00:14:09):
start swimming.

(00:14:10):
Otherwise you're going down.

(00:14:11):
Um,

(00:14:12):
so there's a,

(00:14:13):
um,

(00:14:14):
you talk a lot about like,

(00:14:15):
um,

(00:14:17):
being like spiritual aligned and emotionally aligned.

(00:14:20):
Um, did you ever find that, um,

(00:14:23):
would use your spiritual or emotional senses when making investments or decisions

(00:14:30):
um i mean what is spirituality you know it's kind of it's a vexed subject i mean

(00:14:37):
that's the turtle the torso yeah that's the turtle oh my god can we take that up

(00:14:43):
only in symbols are you picking that up

(00:14:48):
So in a spirituality perspective,

(00:14:54):
I was always,

(00:14:56):
my role model was,

(00:14:58):
are you going to hold the turtle?

(00:14:59):
I guess I can hold them.

(00:15:02):
I guess we could put that question on pause.

(00:15:06):
What made you fall in love with the island and the turtle?

(00:15:14):
I guess we could just...

(00:15:15):
Don't worry.

(00:15:16):
He's going to bite my toe.

(00:15:17):
You're not scared of anything.

(00:15:19):
Put him back down.

(00:15:20):
Let him be.

(00:15:20):
Let him be free in St.

(00:15:22):
Boris.

(00:15:23):
They're kind of actually speedy.

(00:15:24):
Okay.

(00:15:25):
Bye buddy.

(00:15:26):
Give him a carrot.

(00:15:29):
Oh my God.

(00:15:29):
Um, okay.

(00:15:33):
So two things, spirituality.

(00:15:35):
Um, and I was going to say that, um,

(00:15:38):
I, as an investor, I was an existentialist.

(00:15:43):
And the three tenets of my belief,

(00:15:44):
and I accept everyone has their own,

(00:15:48):
but my operating system was that I believe that God is dead,

(00:15:53):
that there are no rules,

(00:15:55):
and you're on your own.

(00:15:57):
And an extension of that would be that I was the author and the architect of all of my failures.

(00:16:04):
It wasn't on someone else, it wasn't the

(00:16:07):
the, the, the investment bank, it wasn't like, uh, I wasn't unlucky.

(00:16:12):
It was, it was me.

(00:16:12):
And likewise, I was the, the author and creator of, of all of my gains.

(00:16:17):
So, but it's on me, right?

(00:16:19):
There aren't, um, um, there's, there's not a divine spiritual power that's going to redeem me.

(00:16:24):
Um, now you asked, uh, in terms of why St.

(00:16:29):
Boris?

(00:16:29):
Yeah.

(00:16:29):
I mean, the obvious answer is get out of here.

(00:16:32):
Yeah.

(00:16:32):
You know, like St.

(00:16:33):
Boris is the most dope place in the world.

(00:16:34):
What, what made you fall in love with the island?

(00:16:36):
Um,

(00:16:39):
Uh, so it's, where are we?

(00:16:42):
We're in the Caribbean.

(00:16:43):
Yeah.

(00:16:44):
I hate the Caribbean.

(00:16:45):
Okay.

(00:16:46):
And again, it's another tenant of, of, of my universe.

(00:16:49):
I'm always, um, drawn to paradox and irony.

(00:16:54):
Okay.

(00:16:54):
So here I am, I'm devoted my, you know, my life to living in the Caribbean.

(00:16:58):
I don't like, I hate, I hate the Caribbean.

(00:17:01):
Yeah.

(00:17:01):
Um,

(00:17:02):
so explain,

(00:17:03):
um,

(00:17:04):
this is the most dope place ever because it's,

(00:17:07):
I'm living essentially in Europe.

(00:17:08):
I feel like I'm having a Europe summer I never had.

(00:17:11):
Yeah, exactly.

(00:17:11):
This is the best part of Europe.

(00:17:14):
There's no crime,

(00:17:15):
there's no tax,

(00:17:16):
there's great infrastructure,

(00:17:17):
there's beautiful ladies,

(00:17:19):
beautiful people,

(00:17:20):
beautiful restaurants,

(00:17:21):
beautiful beaches.

(00:17:22):
It's small, and between the end of December and the end of March,

(00:17:28):
Some of the most successful people in the world across all industries and creative endeavors,

(00:17:35):
they come here.

(00:17:36):
So it's a pivot, it's a network, and it's a very powerful place.

(00:17:42):
But in terms of reaching out and coming here,

(00:17:44):
I devoted my life as my principal residence from about 2015 because I was

(00:17:54):
emotionally and physically exhausted from investing.

(00:17:57):
Mm-hmm.

(00:17:58):
And what I want to explain by that is your brain has,

(00:18:01):
there's no window at the back of your head looking out and surveying what's happening.

(00:18:08):
Your brain is dependent on these voices in your head,

(00:18:11):
these messages,

(00:18:13):
telling it,

(00:18:14):
giving it a report on what's happening.

(00:18:16):
And for me, I was always contraining and against the grain.

(00:18:21):
I just wasn't the other guy.

(00:18:23):
And so when people made money, I lost money.

(00:18:25):
When people lost money, I made money.

(00:18:27):
But predominantly people make money.

(00:18:29):
And so a lot of the time I would be saying to myself, I'm dead.

(00:18:34):
This was Mortal Kombat.

(00:18:36):
they they're coming to get me this is the end of my life today and my brain would

(00:18:40):
flood me with um you know the fight or flight and you would be flooded with what

(00:18:45):
are inherently rather toxic natural chemicals within the body and so i had to come

(00:18:52):
to a place of great natural great natural beauty and there's something about great

(00:18:57):
natural beauty which helps the mind heal so healing if you if you could describe

(00:19:03):
saint bart's in one word

(00:19:06):
What is the word that you would choose?

(00:19:10):
I'm going to use the word serendipity because my journey to this island had pivot points.

(00:19:19):
And I can only describe those pivot points as being events where it's hard to explain,

(00:19:28):
but it was serendipity,

(00:19:29):
like good things happened.

(00:19:31):
Did good things happen because of the force of my nature, my character?

(00:19:37):
I made them happen.

(00:19:39):
But at the time, I was like, you know, what the fuck?

(00:19:43):
Did you ever dream growing up something specific?

(00:19:46):
Because when I first met Hugh,

(00:19:49):
when we were on Mercer Street in New York,

(00:19:51):
I thought for sure I was sitting beside some sort of ACDC,

(00:19:55):
I don't even know any,

(00:19:57):
all that hip...

(00:19:58):
or, uh, that rock and roll, I was like, shit, I'm sitting beside a guitarist, a drummer.

(00:20:03):
And I said, like, I didn't say like retired rockstar.

(00:20:07):
I said like resting rockstar.

(00:20:09):
Cause you were kind of giving me like, Oh, he's probably just like taking a break right now.

(00:20:14):
Or like he's a pause.

(00:20:16):
I thought for sure something like that.

(00:20:18):
So I was wondering if like music, um, or something like that was maybe a dream growing up.

(00:20:25):
Uh, music is an obsession.

(00:20:26):
Um,

(00:20:27):
It's love language.

(00:20:29):
I, um, I mean, is he, is he, do you see other than fake Bono?

(00:20:33):
Yeah.

(00:20:34):
Um,

(00:20:36):
um,

(00:20:37):
so when I was,

(00:20:38):
uh,

(00:20:39):
we've been doing the summer,

(00:20:40):
the summer camp,

(00:20:41):
the investment camp,

(00:20:42):
and we're on stage,

(00:20:44):
um,

(00:20:44):
with about four or five people.

(00:20:45):
Yeah.

(00:20:46):
Um, and I, I went back into the character who used to manage money.

(00:20:51):
Yeah.

(00:20:51):
Um, and

(00:20:53):
My friend here, this is the audience, Alex.

(00:20:58):
I'm kind of like, you can see I was a nightmare to work with because I can't sit still.

(00:21:04):
I've got Tourette's.

(00:21:05):
I walk around, I have my shoes off.

(00:21:09):
And I interrupt people.

(00:21:10):
I look at my phone and I'm like, I'm everywhere.

(00:21:13):
Literally, I was too much of a disruption to the office.

(00:21:17):
I work from home.

(00:21:18):
Mm-hmm.

(00:21:20):
before remote was the thing and I would come in maybe late afternoon and I'd come

(00:21:26):
in because the voices in my head were compelling me to do something and I'd come in

(00:21:29):
to challenge my investment team I'm like I'm crazy I just had this crazy idea the

(00:21:36):
crazy idea would be driven off of I would sit and watch hours of charts of the corn

(00:21:43):
price to the Nvidia price to the Japanese yen to

(00:21:47):
you know, Indian 10-year bond yields.

(00:21:51):
And I thought I could see patterns.

(00:21:53):
And I tried to configure that with my understanding of how the world operates.

(00:21:57):
And I'd conceive of something.

(00:21:58):
But at the time, so I was spending like six hours in a dark space with these flashing charts.

(00:22:06):
And I still use a system which was conceived and invented in the 17th century by

(00:22:12):
Japanese rice traders.

(00:22:15):
And I listened to music.

(00:22:16):
In fact, so much was my joy for music.

(00:22:19):
And I had a revelation back in 2005 that I became one of the largest investors in EMI.

(00:22:26):
EMI is a huge publisher and recorded artists.

(00:22:34):
I had the Beatles, I had everyone.

(00:22:37):
And there was a time when I had that investment.

(00:22:42):
I had Warner Music.

(00:22:43):
I was kind of tight with Edgar Bronfman Jr.

(00:22:45):
And we were trying to get Edgar to take over EMI.

(00:22:49):
EMI was run by Suits.

(00:22:51):
And EMI in my world was trading like four standard deviations from my perception of reality.

(00:22:58):
What are standard deviations?

(00:23:00):
The perception of life is that we have something called a normal distribution.

(00:23:03):
You'll see like a bell curve.

(00:23:06):
And the bell curve is a representation of the probability of events or the

(00:23:12):
clustering of occurrences.

(00:23:14):
Just to get through some of these,

(00:23:16):
did you ever have a mentor or someone that,

(00:23:20):
you know,

(00:23:20):
said something to you that kind of stuck with you when,

(00:23:24):
you know,

(00:23:25):
like you're doing things that are out of the norm,

(00:23:27):
but people are trying to kind of keep you in your box?

(00:23:30):
Was there anything that was said to you or someone that supported you that kind of

(00:23:33):
helped you fly out of that box?

(00:23:37):
Yeah, for sure.

(00:23:37):
Again,

(00:23:38):
so that would take us back to pivot points and this notion of serendipity,

(00:23:41):
which brought me here.

(00:23:43):
Um, and it was the worst day of my life, which turned into the greatest day of my life.

(00:23:53):
Um, I had, um, I had moved to London.

(00:23:57):
I was working in London, um, for a big bank and I was hating it.

(00:24:02):
And the guy who hired me, I thought he was a moron.

(00:24:04):
Yeah.

(00:24:05):
And

(00:24:08):
On this fateful day,

(00:24:09):
my boss was feeling poorly and he called in sick and he asked if I would attend a

(00:24:16):
lunch and take notes on another portfolio manager.

(00:24:20):
And I thought, I can't fall any lower here.

(00:24:24):
I'm now the guy that takes notes on money,

(00:24:28):
like the people I want to be,

(00:24:29):
rather than being the guy,

(00:24:30):
I'm the guy taking the notes.

(00:24:33):
And I was furious, but on that day,

(00:24:37):
I met my mentor and we, was it Lennon or McCartney?

(00:24:45):
And we vibe really, really high.

(00:24:47):
At the end of the lunch,

(00:24:49):
he suggested that I come to his house that night and have supper and discuss the

(00:24:57):
world more.

(00:24:58):
And it was just back and forth, back and forth.

(00:25:01):
You know, it was really electric.

(00:25:03):
And at the end of this evening, he said, you're one of us.

(00:25:06):
You're a pirate.

(00:25:07):
Here we are in the Caribbean.

(00:25:08):
You're a pirate.

(00:25:09):
And I want you to join.

(00:25:11):
And I was like, join what?

(00:25:12):
And it was a hedge fund.

(00:25:13):
I didn't know what a hedge fund was.

(00:25:15):
And this was in the year 1999.

(00:25:17):
And that day changed my life.

(00:25:22):
And again, it took me here.

(00:25:23):
Now, so I joined with him.

(00:25:26):
And I have to say that...

(00:25:29):
There are many forces of nature within us, demons and good things.

(00:25:32):
And he was a brilliant iconoclastic thinker.

(00:25:39):
But I'm using past tense not because he's dead,

(00:25:42):
but because his reputation has been destroyed by his awful behavior.

(00:25:47):
He was a touchy-feely person.

(00:25:49):
He intimidated people.

(00:25:52):
And he's been taken down for that.

(00:25:56):
I do not make excuses for that,

(00:25:58):
but all I can say is that there are many forces,

(00:26:00):
and he was my finishing school in terms of the education of being a speculator.

(00:26:06):
And to answer your question,

(00:26:08):
my dear,

(00:26:09):
he said to me,

(00:26:10):
the three most powerful forces in being a speculator,

(00:26:13):
or indeed to enjoy a full life,

(00:26:17):
you've got to be playful,

(00:26:19):
you've got to be curious,

(00:26:21):
and you've got to be mischievous.

(00:26:23):
And if you put them together,

(00:26:25):
like you're going to be okay yeah you're going to vibe high love it um okay we have

(00:26:30):
a few left but um just to kind of take like a quick break i had a bank of america

(00:26:36):
um sales and trading associate that went to my university um and i asked him if he

(00:26:41):
could send me a question um and he wanted to know what you think the meaning of

(00:26:46):
life is what's his name um nicola

(00:26:53):
Do you know?

(00:26:53):
Meaning of life.

(00:26:54):
Yeah.

(00:26:56):
Might have to cut that out.

(00:26:57):
I don't want to share it.

(00:26:58):
You only got 30 seconds.

(00:26:59):
Yeah.

(00:27:00):
Your bank.

(00:27:00):
So the most relevant friend you have in finance.

(00:27:06):
And that's his question.

(00:27:07):
That's his question.

(00:27:08):
And he's the one that replied.

(00:27:10):
Tell me about the meaning.

(00:27:11):
What did he offer?

(00:27:12):
That's, that's what he offered.

(00:27:14):
He, um, he,

(00:27:16):
He had just replied when I,

(00:27:17):
because Hugh,

(00:27:18):
when I first met Hugh,

(00:27:19):
he told me to be more courageous.

(00:27:22):
So I kind of just threw him on my Insta and quoted it.

(00:27:25):
And I said, dash HH.

(00:27:26):
And I've kind of just like, I've thought about it every day.

(00:27:29):
And he replied and said, like, I watched his Bloomberg thing this morning.

(00:27:33):
Like, how do you know him?

(00:27:34):
Blah, blah, blah.

(00:27:35):
So I was like, I'm going to interview him.

(00:27:37):
Like, give me one question, like anything.

(00:27:41):
And that's what he asked.

(00:27:43):
Okay, okay, okay, okay.

(00:27:45):
So, again, if we go back to my mentor.

(00:27:47):
Yeah.

(00:27:50):
I was fascinated by this guy because he was larger than life.

(00:27:54):
He was physically large.

(00:27:55):
He was intellectually large.

(00:27:57):
Like I said, he was intimidating.

(00:27:59):
And a bully, but I stood, I'm a tough guy, I stood my ground.

(00:28:05):
And the thing that I was amazed, well, the thing that fascinates, the flaws fascinated me.

(00:28:13):
But the thing...

(00:28:17):
that I thought about most was on his tombstone.

(00:28:22):
And of course,

(00:28:22):
this kind of like is a bit double-edged now,

(00:28:24):
given he's subject to...

(00:28:26):
When you die,

(00:28:27):
what do you want people to remember?

(00:28:29):
So I was thinking when he dies, what it would say on his tombstone.

(00:28:32):
And I knew what it would say on his tombstone.

(00:28:35):
And I was like, I can't see the words on my tombstone.

(00:28:38):
I can see his.

(00:28:39):
And you know what?

(00:28:41):
I like those words.

(00:28:42):
And it would say, this motherfucker enjoyed every single day.

(00:28:47):
Literally.

(00:28:48):
Now, he took it to excess.

(00:28:50):
I'm not looking to cross lines with anyone.

(00:28:53):
But if you should leave this life with a blank...

(00:28:59):
tombstone and you should ask your closest and dearest to write the tagline and i'm

(00:29:05):
hoping and praying and saying hh oh my god yeah i mean he was a bit heavy but there

(00:29:11):
are lies there are lies a guy that enjoyed life and i have to say that's a that's a

(00:29:16):
new thing um i am the most joyous like i'm the best friend you can have yeah

(00:29:22):
today but that was not always the case and so yeah the meaning of life is to it's

(00:29:28):
gone in a flash yeah and and the other meaning of life and this was actually so it

(00:29:34):
ends up being a good question actually well done what's it called again nicholas

(00:29:40):
the the speculation you spend all of your time procrastinating and kind of trying

(00:29:46):
to examine and largely living in the future

(00:29:51):
I was trying to conceive of contentious narratives that could go on and become an

(00:29:57):
accepted belief system in the future.

(00:30:00):
I've been kind of accumulating U.S.

(00:30:04):
Treasury bonds, like long dated, for the last 18 months.

(00:30:08):
And that was profoundly contentious as a posture.

(00:30:13):
And I've got another 12 months, and I think over the next 12 months, and I can just see...

(00:30:18):
The belief system is beginning to change a little bit.

(00:30:21):
And I think my contention will then become accepted.

(00:30:24):
But to the point of the meaning of life,

(00:30:27):
make sure you don't devote too much of your life and you find yourself stranded in

(00:30:32):
the future because now it's all about now and now should be blissful.

(00:30:37):
I love it.

(00:30:38):
Okay, last question.

(00:30:39):
Okay, so pick a number in between one to five.

(00:30:43):
And I guess just for viewers,

(00:30:46):
Hugh,

(00:30:46):
I guess,

(00:30:46):
would you call yourself a hotelier with Maison Blanc-Bleu?

(00:30:53):
I just call myself a happy person.

(00:30:54):
I call myself the great Gatsby.

(00:30:58):
You were at the party last night.

(00:31:00):
Someone actually mentioned that.

(00:31:01):
They said, you know, he's kind of like Gatsby.

(00:31:04):
And I was like, it was Eric.

(00:31:05):
And I was like, you know what?

(00:31:07):
You're right.

(00:31:09):
Hell of a DJ.

(00:31:11):
I think there's a lot of potential for the future of gatherings.

(00:31:15):
which is ultimately a community.

(00:31:16):
But hoteliers, so I have like a great Gatsby, beautiful house.

(00:31:21):
Yeah.

(00:31:22):
I'm gloating, but it's a fact you've been there.

(00:31:25):
You can't say anyone that has stayed there or?

(00:31:28):
Like,

(00:31:29):
you know,

(00:31:29):
it's a billionaire type place,

(00:31:31):
very successful people and Hollywood people and sports stars and everyone.

(00:31:36):
Would you welcome anyone?

(00:31:37):
Or is there anyone specifically that you kind of wouldn't let stay?

(00:31:42):
Yeah.

(00:31:44):
I mean, you don't want dish bags, you know, it's very, very expensive property.

(00:31:47):
If you pay the money, you can, you can stay and we'll, we'll, we'll take care of you.

(00:31:51):
But, um, you know, so the, the villa is for rental.

(00:31:54):
Uh, so hotel or whatever, but it's a beautiful house.

(00:31:57):
So one pick a number one to five.

(00:31:59):
I've done that.

(00:32:00):
What?

(00:32:01):
I did that.

(00:32:01):
Sorry.

(00:32:01):
What number did you choose?

(00:32:03):
One to five.

(00:32:03):
Tell me.

(00:32:05):
One, two, three, four, five.

(00:32:06):
Before I commit myself.

(00:32:07):
It's just one, two, three, four, five.

(00:32:09):
And what are you going to do with that number?

(00:32:10):
It's just a question.

(00:32:11):
It's nothing wrong.

(00:32:13):
There's no meaning to it.

(00:32:14):
Okay.

(00:32:15):
What is the meaning of life?

(00:32:16):
Number three.

(00:32:17):
Okay, three.

(00:32:18):
So if you could have three people,

(00:32:21):
dead or alive,

(00:32:22):
stay at Maison Blanc Bleu with you for a week,

(00:32:28):
who would you choose?

(00:32:30):
Jesus.

(00:32:33):
And it can be anyone.

(00:32:35):
dead or alive.

(00:32:37):
Three people.

(00:32:38):
Yeah.

(00:32:39):
I'm going to, I'm going to cheat.

(00:32:40):
I'm going to say, um, so what's on a similar wavelength.

(00:32:46):
Um, and we were talking about being trapped in the future and time.

(00:32:50):
My, my life is my, my professional life has been about, um, professional time travel.

(00:32:56):
Yeah.

(00:32:56):
Yeah.

(00:32:57):
Seeing the future and coming back and then investing in, in, in today.

(00:33:00):
Yeah.

(00:33:01):
So if we could invent a time machine and I could go back and I could go back and

(00:33:06):
find these three people to hang with.

(00:33:08):
And so you think of the wide expanse of time,

(00:33:11):
how far back we could go and how rich and diverse human history is.

(00:33:19):
I'd step into that time machine and I'd step out almost immediately because I'd be

(00:33:23):
going back to 1970 and I'd be going back to that Villa Nelcott in the south of

(00:33:30):
France where the Rolling Stones recorded exile on Men's Street.

(00:33:36):
If you offered me any point in time where I could have spent...

(00:33:40):
a day, an hour, a week.

(00:33:43):
I think it would kill me if I'd been there for a month.

(00:33:45):
I'd be there and I'd be vibing, you know, with the Rolling Stones.

(00:33:51):
So you would say that's who you would invite?

(00:33:55):
I'm giving you a villa,

(00:33:56):
I'm giving you a French location,

(00:33:57):
and I'm giving you like,

(00:33:59):
there are four members of the band,

(00:34:01):
so I'd be there,

(00:34:02):
yeah.

(00:34:02):
Okay.

(00:34:06):
I guess last question would be,

(00:34:09):
If the entire world was watching right now... I thought they were.

(00:34:13):
They are.

(00:34:14):
But if there's a message that you could say that would create more of a sustainable world,

(00:34:22):
what would you want everyone to know?

(00:34:26):
Don't believe the hype.

(00:34:28):
I love this song.

(00:34:29):
Do you hear that?

(00:34:34):
So with the camp that we're hosting here, extraordinary people have come.

(00:34:41):
And I was speaking to one of the extraordinary members last night.

(00:34:46):
And

(00:34:48):
he told me something extraordinary.

(00:34:50):
So the whole global warming,

(00:34:53):
you were talking about making life sustainable and just seeing our footprint and

(00:34:58):
preserving this wonderful place.

(00:35:02):
Did you know that when you,

(00:35:07):
let's see if I get this right,

(00:35:09):
raising the temperature,

(00:35:13):
the more the CO2 that we have in the atmosphere,

(00:35:19):
the less light that plants need to flourish.

(00:35:24):
And with the advent of the rise in CO2 emissions and atmospheric levels,

(00:35:31):
the planet is becoming greener.

(00:35:35):
It's supportive.

(00:35:37):
And if the global temperatures rise by,

(00:35:40):
I think he would say,

(00:35:41):
two,

(00:35:42):
two and a half degrees,

(00:35:44):
the Saharan desert would no longer be a desert.

(00:35:48):
owing to having all that carbon in the atmosphere.

(00:35:52):
So life is complex and you should challenge.

(00:35:55):
And I'm not saying, hey, all I am saying is whatever you say to me, I will not accept.

(00:36:01):
I will consider it and I'll go back and I'll reflect and I'll try and find flaws in

(00:36:07):
it before I accept it.

(00:36:11):
Okay.

(00:36:12):
I guess let's do, we'll, we'll get you in here for one question.

(00:36:15):
I'm going to set a timer for like one minute.

(00:36:18):
Okay.

(00:36:19):
And you have to pitch your idea with,

(00:36:21):
you were talking about with Tom at the table over there here in St.

(00:36:25):
Barts, what you wanted to do.

(00:36:26):
Okay.

(00:36:27):
So you have to pitch it in one minute to see if he would do an introduction.

(00:36:33):
Okay.

(00:36:33):
Yeah.

(00:36:35):
Um,

(00:36:36):
Well, I also think I'm from the future, not as far as Hugh.

(00:36:42):
Hugh has seen everything in the distance.

(00:36:45):
I'm just starting to see glimpses.

(00:36:47):
He does that to people.

(00:36:48):
It's very infectious.

(00:36:50):
You start seeing things, images, visions.

(00:36:53):
And the vision I had for St.

(00:36:54):
Bart's was a hookah lounge.

(00:36:58):
And it would be wonderful.

(00:37:00):
You would see the sea.

(00:37:02):
There would be clouds wifting.

(00:37:04):
People would be talking.

(00:37:06):
The thing that got me interested in hookah lounges is when I was in the Middle East,

(00:37:12):
it's very popular there as a cultural hub for people to get together.

(00:37:16):
Community, yeah.

(00:37:17):
Power of conversation.

(00:37:18):
That's right.

(00:37:19):
And nicotine is an amazing drug.

(00:37:22):
It allows people to... It stimulates the mind.

(00:37:25):
It gets people talking and thinking.

(00:37:27):
And the important thing that I learned is a lot of times people will hold back and

(00:37:30):
they won't say what they're thinking because they're not sure or they don't want to offend.

(00:37:36):
And one thing nicotine does is it kind of...

(00:37:38):
gets you to talk it gets you to put it out there and i find that when you talk and

(00:37:43):
when you put it out there that's when ideas start to mesh and come together and

(00:37:47):
when you have people you know we're similarly minded coming and doing that and

(00:37:51):
providing their different perspectives that's when magic happens and you know if i

(00:37:57):
can piggyback off the the meaning of life thing i think the question itself is

(00:38:00):
absurd because it's missing a component which is what is the meaning of life for

(00:38:05):
you

(00:38:06):
And people think that there is some great meaning that everybody can find and that's it, right?

(00:38:12):
And we should all strive for that thing.

(00:38:13):
But the reality is the more I talk to people,

(00:38:16):
the more I start to see the future,

(00:38:18):
what I see is that everybody has their own meaning.

(00:38:23):
And when those things come together,

(00:38:26):
That's when we create paradise.

(00:38:28):
Somebody starts a hookah lounge.

(00:38:29):
Somebody runs an incredible hotel.

(00:38:32):
Somebody does media or teaches.

(00:38:34):
And all of that in combination and in concert is the greater meaning.

(00:38:40):
And having all those things close.

(00:38:42):
So we're all kind of close together.

(00:38:44):
I love it here.

(00:38:45):
St.

(00:38:45):
Bart's is something special.

(00:38:49):
So again, I think I've owned and invested in just about every company in the world.

(00:38:54):
So when you say the hookah lounge,

(00:38:59):
there is one company which has like 85,

(00:39:03):
90% global market share of supplying the tobacco for them.

(00:39:06):
And it's quoted, I think, in Jordan and has a big fat dividend.

(00:39:11):
It's been a spectacular stock.

(00:39:12):
But here we are in St.

(00:39:13):
Bart's and we're talking about

(00:39:15):
hookah, tobacco in Jordan.

(00:39:16):
And that is, I think you were touching on that.

(00:39:19):
That's the, life is just freaking extraordinary.

(00:39:22):
And again, it's curious minds that are capable because they're mischievous and they're playful.

(00:39:29):
And that's how you find stocks in Jordan.

(00:39:32):
It's beautiful.

(00:39:33):
Acid capitalism.

(00:39:34):
Acid capitalism.

(00:39:36):
Is there anything else you want to say?

(00:39:39):
Any questions?

(00:39:41):
Anything that you would tell me in general

(00:39:46):
if,

(00:39:46):
if I was never going to see you again,

(00:39:48):
what's,

(00:39:48):
what's something that you would tell me or just knowing me as like a,

(00:39:53):
as a young person,

(00:39:54):
like 23,

(00:39:54):
like what some wisdom or something that you think that I should know that would

(00:40:00):
guide me.

(00:40:04):
Um, again, the, the nothing is starting and there's a cyclical pattern in nature and life.

(00:40:12):
Um, so when I was 23, um,

(00:40:16):
every asset was cheap housing stocks and no one owned them.

(00:40:25):
And today you being 23,

(00:40:27):
every asset in the world almost is overvalued and everyone wants to buy them.

(00:40:33):
And so again, the central message of like my asset capitalism is

(00:40:44):
Just don't be the crowd.

(00:40:45):
The return on being everyone else is mediocre.

(00:40:51):
But it can be lonely and,

(00:40:54):
you know,

(00:40:54):
you're going to have people who are going to challenge you,

(00:40:56):
but find your identity.

(00:40:59):
And...

(00:41:02):
and glow and glimmer with it, and it will take care of you.

(00:41:06):
But it's hard being 23 today in terms of it feels like the economic system is

(00:41:11):
really stacked against us.

(00:41:14):
Life's always tough,

(00:41:15):
but this feels like really,

(00:41:16):
really hard in terms of accumulating wealth at these levels.

(00:41:20):
So just, you know, markets are like an American football stadium.

(00:41:28):
There's like 100,000 people, and they're all standing up, and you're sitting down.

(00:41:32):
Okay, can I add something on that?

(00:41:33):
I like that.

(00:41:35):
So, I'm probably, sometimes people say I look younger than I am, so I'm a bit older than you.

(00:41:40):
You're so younger.

(00:41:41):
Okay, they don't say that to me.

(00:41:43):
I don't know, yeah, well, I'll take it.

(00:41:46):
But I would say that if you find yourself,

(00:41:49):
and I especially notice this with people that are much younger,

(00:41:52):
is if you find yourself in a crowd,

(00:41:55):
whether it's an idea or a place,

(00:41:58):
and it feels crowded,

(00:42:00):
double check your priors, double check your assumptions.

(00:42:04):
What I find is a lot of times crowds tend to attract groupthink.

(00:42:09):
And that can be infectious in the wrong kind of way.

(00:42:12):
And I know young people love to kind of come together and vibe in a similar way.

(00:42:19):
And that's great.

(00:42:19):
And that's beautiful and magical.

(00:42:21):
And I love being at festivals.

(00:42:23):
I love being around people.

(00:42:24):
But when it comes to ideas, you really want to feel

(00:42:29):
like you're having to challenge people or people are challenging you.

(00:42:34):
There's an old,

(00:42:35):
I don't know who the quotes attributed to,

(00:42:36):
but somebody was worried about having their good ideas stolen.

(00:42:41):
And his friend told him,

(00:42:42):
don't worry if the idea is good,

(00:42:43):
you'll have to force it down people's throats.

(00:42:46):
So if it's an idea that people are stealing, it may not be that good of an idea.

(00:42:50):
I also heard someone say, no one can kind of do the idea the way that you can.

(00:42:57):
So

(00:42:58):
just like go with it and do it.

(00:43:01):
Um, okay.

(00:43:02):
Yeah.

(00:43:03):
Like that's, that's pretty much all I had to say.

(00:43:05):
I do have a love section on my page.

(00:43:09):
Um,

(00:43:09):
but I'm not going to go too deep into anything,

(00:43:11):
but I just want to know,

(00:43:13):
have you ever written a love letter before?

(00:43:16):
Um, yes.

(00:43:21):
Um, I have, I've got three children, two girls and a boy.

(00:43:26):
Um, and I,

(00:43:28):
Okay, love.

(00:43:29):
We have a beautiful tradition whereby on someone's birthday in the family,

(00:43:39):
each member writes them a poem.

(00:43:42):
And we have dinner and then we all recite the poems.

(00:43:45):
And it's a recital of love.

(00:43:47):
And it's a hard thing.

(00:43:49):
Oh my God, I've got to write this damn thing.

(00:43:51):
It's the most joyous and beautiful thing.

(00:43:53):
And you're delivering pure love.

(00:43:55):
So three times a year, I write love letters.

(00:43:59):
And then that makes me think of Elvis Costello.

(00:44:03):
And I write the book.

(00:44:04):
Yeah.

(00:44:06):
And this is amazing.

(00:44:08):
What were the letters?

(00:44:08):
It got us back to that Victor Niederhoff.

(00:44:10):
But every day I write the book.

(00:44:13):
Chapter one, I fell in love.

(00:44:15):
No, no.

(00:44:16):
Chapter one, we didn't really get along.

(00:44:19):
Chapter two, I think I fell in love with you.

(00:44:22):
So, boom, done.

(00:44:23):
I love it.

(00:44:27):
Are we done?

(00:44:29):
Yeah, we're done.

(00:44:32):
Zoom.

(00:44:32):
We've got a DJ deck now to use.

(00:44:35):
Let's go.

(00:44:35):
Okay.