When logic fails, hedges break, and the models panic.Markets rarely behave. In this episode, Hugh Hendry unpacks why. Exploring what happens when models flash red and logic collapses in real time. From George Gammon’...

The Ricardian Equivalence, Treasury Debt, and the Modernity of Money

Do Deficits Make You Rich?The uncomfortable truth: fiscal stimulus creates wealth, not consumer inflation.Sat pondering in a Caribbean bar, thinking about intelligence, the Fed, deficits, and why inflation lives in Wall Str...

In this acid breath of mine, I drift between the sublime and the sardonic. I trace how America, once the debtor, became the empire, how quantitative easing rewired the flow of wealth from the cautious creditor to the restless entrep...

I began with CPI, but as usual, I ended up somewhere between Beethoven and gold. The headline CPI 3%, core the same. The whisper was higher. The market calls it “Goldilocks.” Not too hot, not too cold. I call it “Never be a dick for a tick.”

Perhaps the best, most revealing of this daily series. This is macro analysis as cabaret. The Japanese call it, rakugoka (落語家), a man in kimono, I have no kimono, seated on a cushion performing poignant financial monologues. ...

ʏᴇꜱᴛᴇʀᴅᴀʏ’ꜱ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ꜰᴇʟᴛ ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴀ ᴍɪʀᴀɢᴇ. ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ʟᴏᴏᴋᴇᴅ ᴄᴀʟᴍ, ʏᴇᴛ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴜʀꜰᴀᴄᴇ ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴀꜱ ꜱʜᴀᴋᴇꜱᴘᴇᴀʀᴇᴀɴ ᴅʀᴀᴍᴀ.ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴅɪᴇᴅ ɪɴ ᴘʟᴀɪɴ ꜱɪɢʜᴛ ᴡʜɪʟᴇ ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴅᴇx ʙᴀʀᴇʟʏ ʙʟɪɴᴋᴇᴅ. ɢᴏʟᴅ ᴛʀᴇᴍᴏʀꜱ ᴄᴏɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʟʟᴏᴡɪɴɢ ɪᴛꜱ ᴛʜʀᴇᴇ ꜱɪɢᴍᴀ ᴅᴀʏ,ᴛʜᴇ ᴋɪɴᴅ ...

October 21st, no fanfare, just me and my thoughts. I have been on X all day, and only later realized gold had fallen sharply. Some people thought I had timed my comments to take gold down, as if I could move the market. It made me laugh....

Creativity, Chaos, and the Signals That MatterGold's ripping, stocks are ripping, but this isn't a hedge, it's a hallucination. In today's episode, I break down the paradox of rising fear assets and euphoria trades mov...

Any Fool Could Make Money in GoldBut Only a Lunatic Could Explain It Like ThisThe lights flicker but they don't go out.Today I tracked the silence. No CPI, no jobs print, no retail sales. The government is shut. The market ...

There’s a smell in the air, that faint electric tang before a storm. The markets are choppy, the screens green and red in alternating flickers, and behind it all you can almost hear the static of something old returning.In this episode o...

ARM Ascends, Oil Drifts, Queens EnduresI open on macro static and shutdown fog, a strange steadiness where the market beat goes on. The Beige Book whispers fractures, three Fed districts up, five flat, four softening, a recalibration mor...

A market meditation disguised as weather report, part Fear and Loathing, part BBC Shipping Forecast. Markets drift in a haze of caution and theatrical boredom. Bankers profit without joy, express bubble caution<...

The Day Silver Spoke and AI Went IndustrialThe age of abundance is over: compute, energy, and silver say so.Acid Breath Daily is Hugh Hendry’s financial freak show : a daily dive into markets where logic wrestles madness ...

Today’s Acid Breath is a descent into the machinery behind the market’s tremor. Tariffs ignite, rare earths reveal their dirty chemistry, and America’s clean hands look suspiciously like Walter White’s gloves. Are we about ...

ShadowlightA new inflation priesthood grabbed the pulpit. With officials offstage, a retail outfit called OpenBrand dropped a fresh CPI and the press sang hymns.I torch the cosplay, then hold up the mirror. In markets, any ...

Day eight of the shutdown, no data, no scoreboard, just thunder over St Barts and my voice in the dark. The Philly Fed whispers life and the Fed’s month-old minutes somehow steal the show: dovish, nervous, and oddly triumphant. ...

Acid Breath - Kobayashi Test - 7 October 2025Government shut, data feed dead, and the market is whispering its sins. I open today’s Acid Breath by reading price as confession, not scripture. Regional banks are mating for surv...

PTJ brings signal, Takaichi tilts pro growth and the tape points higherAcid Breath is the market show that slaps you awake. Government went dark; price turned the lights on. Paul Tudor Jones walked on TV and the n...

What Is Acid Breath?A nightly macro riff that turns the day’s markets and data into signal. Quirky, erudite, fast. We entertain, then arm you to trade like an adult.Fly Blind, See ClearShutdown day three, payrolls l...

The Shipping News for Investors. Acid Breath is a sub-30 minute market monologue for thinkers, not twitchers. Nightly under the Caribbean sky with jazz low, I strip the day bare for signal. Today was diffusion indices in plain English (5...

Acid Breath is a 10 to 20 minute daily market monologue for investors who prefer thinking to twitching. I scan the day's U.S. economic releases like JOLTS, CPI, and payrolls, note how risk assets moved, then strip away the theater of first prin...

Started too late, desk on the terrace, sound may dip, mind awake.Welcome to the quiet safe macro room.Seekers of clear stories.Turning noise into knowledge.The economy is a machine.Complicated, not mystical.I round to...

Acid Capital Breath is a quiet ten to fifteen minute ritual: breathe, reflect, and translate the day's economic data and market moves into plain English. I attempt to cut the code, tell the simple story of a market seeking its future, and leave...